Recent Temporal Trend and Variability of Rainfall in Mid-Himalaya Region of Uttarakhand
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36808/if/2023/v149i4/166742Keywords:
Himalayan Region, Water Management, Deficit, Climate Change.Abstract
Agriculture in hill and mountain ecosystem is predominantly rainfed with common occurrence of moisture stress. Due to erratic rainfall and adverse topology in the Indian Himalaya Region (IHR), agricultural drought has become a prime concern. It is a natural disaster which evolves in time and their impacts generally last a long period of time. The present study attempts to characterize annual, seasonal and monthly temporal trend and rainfall pattern of 56 years long-term (1964-2019) and post-urbanization or recent (1971-2019) meteorological data of ICAR-VPKAS, Experimental Farm Hawalbagh observatory located in mid-Himalayan region of Uttarakhand state of India. Man-Kendall (α ≤ 0.05; α ≤ 0.10) test, Sen.'s slope and rainfall anomaly index (RAI) were employed for detecting trend, changes in magnitude of rainfall and identifying rainfall deficit year, respectively. Results revealed that RAI analysis frequency of drought year was increasing in last 10 years. The results of study will help in understanding the variation and availability of rainfall in different seasons of the year and motivate to adopt effective water management and agricultural practices for rainfed hills. This study will also be useful for regional, scientific and policy makers for preparing appropriate strategies in order to mitigate adverse impact of climate change in mid-Himalayan region.References
Baines P.G. (2006). The late 1960s Global Climate Shift and its influence on the Southern Hemisphere, In Proceedings of the 8 ICSHMO, Foz do Iguaçu, Brazil, 1477-1482.
Basistha A., Arya D.S. and Goel N.K. (2009). Analysis of historical changes in rainfall in the Indian Himalayas, International Journal of Climatology, 29: 555-572.
Choudhary A., Dimri A.P. and Maharana P. (2018). Assessment of CORDEX-SA experiments in representing rainfall climatology of summer monsoon over India, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 134(1-2): 283-307.
Cinco T.A., de Guzman R.G., Hilario F.D. and Wilson D.M. (2014). Long-term trends and extremes in observed daily precipitation and near surface air temperature in the Philippines for the period 1951-2010, Atmospheric Research, 45: 12-26.
Das P.K., Chakraborty A. and Seshasai M.V.R. (2014). Spatial analysis of temporal trend of rainfall and rainy days during the Indian summer monsoon season using daily gridded (0.5° × 0.5°) rainfall data for the period of 1971-2005, Meteorology Application, 21: 481-493.
Datta P. (2006): "Urbanisation in India. In: European Population Conference", Bratislava, 21-24.
Gocic M. and Trajkovic S. (2013). Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia, Global Planetary Change, 100: 172-182.
Guhathakurta P. and Rajeevan M. (2008). Trends in the rainfall pattern over India, International Journal of Climatology, 28: 1453-1470.
Gupta R.P., Haritashya U.K. and Singh P. (2005). Mapping dry/wet snow cover in the Indian Himalaya using IRS multispectral imagery, Remote Sensing Environment, 97: 458-469.
Haylock M. and Nicholls N. (2000). Trends in extreme rainfall indices for an updated high-quality data set for Australia, 1910-1998, International Journal of Climatology, 20: 533-1541.
Jain S.K. and Kumar V. (2012). Trend analysis of rainfall and temperature data for India, Current Science, 102: 37-49.
Jena P.P., Chatterjee C., Pradhan G. and Mishra A. (2014). Are recent frequent high floods in Mahanadi basin in eastern India due to increase in extreme rainfalls? Journal of Hydrology, 517: 847-862.
Joshi S., Kumar K., Joshi V. and Pande B. (2014). Rainfall variability and indices of extreme rainfall-analysis and perception study for two stations over central Himalaya, India", Natural Hazards, 72: 361-374.
Kamruzzaman M., Beecham S. and Metcalfe A.V. (2016). Estimation of trends in rainfall extremes with mixed effects models, Atmospheric Research, 168: 24-32.
Kendall MG (1948). Rank correlation methods, 4th edn. Charles Griffin, London.
Kiely G., Albertson J.D. and Parlange M.B. (1998). Recent trends in diurnal variation of precipitation at Valentia on the west coast of Ireland, Journal of Hydrology, 207: 270-279.
Kumar N., Yadav B.P., Gahlot S. and Singh M. (2015). Winter frequency of western disturbances and precipitation indices over Himachal Pradesh, India: 1977-2007, Atmósfera, 28: 63-70.
Li H., Haugen J.E. and Xu C.Y. (2018). Precipitation pattern in the Western Himalayas revealed by four datasets, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 22: 5097-5110.
Mann H.B. (1945). Nonparametric tests against trend, Journal of Econometric Society, 13(3): 245-259.
Naidu C.V., Durgalakshmi K., Muni Krishna K., Ramal ingeswara Rao S., Satyanarayana G.C., Lakshminarayana P. and MalleswaraRao L. (2009). Is summer monsoon rainfall decreasing over Indiain the global warming era? Journal of Geophysical Research, 114, D24108. https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JD011288.
Palazzi E., Hardeberg J.V. and Provenzale A. (2013). Precipitation in the Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalaya: observations and future scenarios†Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmosphere, 118: 85-100.
Kumar U., Sahoo B., Chatterjee C and Raghuwanshi N.S. (2020). Evaluation of Simplified Surface Energy Balance Index (S-SEBI) Method for Estimating Actual Evapotranspiration in Kangsabati Reservoir Command Using Landsat 8 Imagery. J Indian Soc Remote Sens., 48: 1421-1432.
Kumar U., Singh S., Bisht J.K. and Kant L. (2021). Use of meteorological data for identification of agricultural drought in Kumaon region of Uttarakhand. J Earth Syst Sci., 130: 121 https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-021-01622-1.
Pant G.B. (2003). Long-term climate variability and change over monsoon Asia, Journal of Indian Geophysical Union, 7(3): 125-134.
Partal T. and Kahya E. (2006). Trend analysis in Turkish precipitation data. Hydrological Processes, 20: 2011-2026.
Patra J.P., Mishra A., Singh R. and Raghuwanshi N.S. (2012). Detecting rainfall trends in twentieth century (1871-2006) over Orissa State, India, Climate Change, 111: 801-817.
Pingale S.M., Khare D., Jat M.K. and Adamowski J. (2014). Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India, Atmospheric Research, 138:73-90.
Sen P.K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall's tau, Journal of American Statistical Association, 63: 1379-1389.
Singh P., Ramasastri K.S. and Kumar N. (1995). Topographical influence on precipitation distribution in different ranges of Westerns Himalayas, Nordic Hydrology, 26: 259-284.
Singh R.B. and Mal S. (2014). Trend and variability of monsoon and other rainfall seasons in Western Himalaya, India, Atmospheric Science Letter, 15: 218-226.
Sudhira H.S. and Gururaja K.V. (2012). Population crunch in India: is it urban or still rural?, Current Science, 103: 37-40.
Tabari H. and Talaee P.H. (2011). Temporal variability of precipitation over Iran: 1966-2005, Journal of Hydrology, 396: 313-320.
Theil H. (1950). A rank-invariant method of linear and polynomial regression analysisâ€, Indagationes Mathematicae, 12: 85.
Zin W.Z.W., Jamaludin S., Deni S.M. and Jemain A.A. (2010). Recent changes in extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia: 1971-2005, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 99: 303-314.
Downloads
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Unless otherwise stated, copyright or similar rights in all materials presented on the site, including graphical images, are owned by Indian Forester.