Evaluation of Vulnerability of Agricultural Crops to Climate Change in Rainfed Districts of Haryana, India

Hement Kumar; Manoj Kumar; Smita Chaudhry

doi:10.36808/if/2025/v151i12/170919

Evaluation of Vulnerability of Agricultural Crops to Climate Change in Rainfed Districts of Haryana, India

Authors

Hement Kumar Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, Haryana https://orcid.org/0009-0000-4903-3864
Manoj Kumar Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education, Dehradun, Uttarakhand https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2360-5451
Smita Chaudhry Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, Haryana https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5766-2206

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36808/if/2025/v151i12/170919

Keywords:

Climate Change, Cropland, NPP, Vulnerability, Rainfed Agriculture, Food Security, Adaptability

Abstract

Agriculture is particularly sensitive to potential of climate change, including an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. The productivity of agriculture crops can be distressed by changes in both of water and soil regimes brought about by variations in rainfall and temperature.

To evaluate the impacts, it is necessary to evaluate vulnerability and the adaptive capacity of the lands affected by climate change. This study examined changes in agricultural crops sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change using Net Primary Productivity (NPP). The vulnerability of agricultural land was assessed by analysing the sensitivity and adaptation patterns of NPP. In this context, sensitivity refers to how much a system reacts to shifts in climate conditions, and adaptability signifies the system's ability to sustain, recover, or improve its core characteristics when encountering climate-related obstacles. The findings revealed that the major areas were covered by low to moderate sensitivity and vulnerability. The study revealed a positive relationship of NPP with both precipitation and the number of rainy days. The findings have been consolidated to assess the vulnerability at the administrative boundary level of governance, specifically the districts. To evaluate vulnerability at the district level, the average vulnerability value of all cropland pixels in the district was computed. We conclude that one unified indicator that captures agricultural vulnerability may not be adequate to direct resilience to climate change. We stress the importance of conducting more research on the measurement and visualization of agricultural vulnerability as well as the communication of limitations in data and methodology.

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