Forest Simulation Models and Climate Change: A Critical Review
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.36808/if/2026/v152i6A/171260Keywords:
Forest simulation models, Climate change, Process-based models, Gap models, MaxEnt, 3-PG, Forest dynamics, India.Abstract
Forests cover approximately 4.14 billion hectares globally and play an important role in carbon sequestration, biodiversity conservation, and rural livelihoods. However, accelerating climate change is reshaping forest structure, species composition, and ecosystem functioning at an unprecedented pace, creating an urgent need for robust predictive tools. This review examines the major categories of forest simulation models, empirical, process-based, gap, landscape, and hybrid, evaluating their theoretical foundations, practical strengths, and inherent limitations in the context of climate change research. A historical timeline traces model development from 18th-century yield tables to contemporary Earth System Models. Four case studies drawn from India, Spain, and the United States demonstrate how different modelling frameworks perform across contrasting ecological and management contexts, confirming that no single model type is universally appropriate. The review identifies the near complete absence of process-based forest modelling applications in Indian ecosystems as the most significant knowledge gap in the field. Future research priorities include physiological parameterization of Indian tree species, long-term monitoring network development, and the application of multi-model ensemble frameworks to tropical and subtropical forest systems.
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