Ecological Niche modelling for Predicting Suitable Habitat for Conservation of Vulnerable Tree Species <i>Buchnania lanzan</i> (Spreng.) in Degraded Ecosystem of Vindhya region of Uttar Pradesh, India

Kaushal Singh; Swetendra K.  Trigunayat; Arbind Gupta; Rajeev Umrao; Vivek Vaishnav; Manish Kumar Singh

doi:10.36808/if/2026/v152i6A/171221

Ecological Niche modelling for Predicting Suitable Habitat for Conservation of Vulnerable Tree Species Buchnania lanzan (Spreng.) in Degraded Ecosystem of Vindhya region of Uttar Pradesh, India

Authors

Kaushal Singh College of Forestry, Banda University of Agriculture and Technology, Banda
Swetendra K. Trigunayat College of Forestry, Banda University of Agriculture and Technology, Banda
Arbind Gupta College of Forestry, Banda University of Agriculture and Technology, Banda
Rajeev Umrao College of Forestry, Banda University of Agriculture and Technology, Banda
Vivek Vaishnav Department of Forestry, Manipur University, Manipur
Manish Kumar Singh CoESLM, Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education, Dehradun, Uttarakhand

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.36808/if/2026/v152i6A/171221

Keywords:

Ecological niche, Conservation, Climate change, Vindhya region.

Abstract

A study was carried out to predict the future distribution range of Chironji (Buchanania lanzan) and characterization of ecological niche in the degraded ecosystem of Vindhya region of Uttar Pradesh. Two different ecological niche models (BioClim and MaxEnt) were applied to determine future species distribution ranges and identify limiting bioclimatic variables for real occurrence data of 57 locations. The GeoCAT and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) were used to find out the population size and topography. Results of the study showed soil pH varied from 6.46 to 7.92, Nitrogen from low (213 kg/ha) to medium (389 kg/ha), Phosphorus was medium (13.50-22.50 kg/ha), and Potassium low (84 kg/ha) to high (662 kg/ha), with 210m to 520m elevation and population size 4.515km2 (Extent of Occurrence) and 23 km2 (Area of Occupancy) with Mahua (Madhuka longifolia var. latifolia), Tendu (Diospuros melanoxylon), and Sal (Shorea robusta) as associates. The distribution ranges were found with 80% overlap between the baseline (2030) and predicted (2100) habitat suitability for the focal species, which were primarily determined by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (Bio_10) and precipitation of the driest quarter (Bio_17) that emerged to be the most sensitive with the contribution of 29.5% and 22.3% respectively. The present (2030) and future (2100) projections suggest 13.73% low suitable, 86.27% medium suitable and 1.52% low suitable, 98.48% medium suitable area respectively for the distribution and cultivation of the chironji. The findings of the study provide insight into the suitable habitats of B. lanzan for its promotion and conservation in Banda, Hamirpur, Kaushambi, Bhadohi, Prayagraj, and Chitrakoot forest divisions of Uttar Pradesh.

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